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When will new AI models come out? Odds and dates

When models come out

9How to read the oddsupdated at

Fable 5.2+

Anthropic
By Nov 30: 92%
Expected date≈Nov 10
50%
By Nov 12: 56%▼ 7.0in 24h

Claude Opus 5.6+

Anthropic
By Nov 30: 73%
Expected date≈Nov 25
50%
By Nov 30: 73%▲ 7.5in 24h

Claude 6

Anthropic
Expected date≈May 11, 2027
50%
By Jun 30, 2027: 71%▼ 2.0in 24h

GPT Astra 6.1+

OpenAI
By Nov 30: 92%
Expected date≈Nov 7
50%
By Nov 15: 70%▲ 36in 24h

GPT Sol 6.2+

OpenAI
Chance by Dec 3156%
50%
No other dates on the market yet

Gemini Flash-Lite 3.6+

Google
By Nov 30: 95%
Expected date≈Nov 9
50%
By Nov 15: 76%▼ 21in 24h

Gemini Carbon

Google
By Nov 30: 95%
Expected date≈Nov 10
50%
By Nov 11: 67%▲ 18in 24h

Qwen Flash 3.9+

Alibaba
Chance by Dec 3196%
50%
No other dates on the market yet

Qwen Max 3.9+

Alibaba
By Nov 30: 94%
Chance by Dec 3194%
50%
By Nov 30: 94%▲ 0.8in 24h

Who leads

Best AI model at the end of 2026

The leader changed this week: seven days ago it was 34% for Google vs 54% for Anthropic.

  1. 1Google54%▼ 2.5
  2. 2Anthropic37%▲ 2.0
  3. 3OpenAI6%0
  4. 4Meta1%
  5. 5xAI<1%0
  6. 6Alibaba<1%
24h volume: $56kResolves Dec 31
Open on Polymarket ↗

Other races

3

Best AI model at the end of November

Google▲ 1.070%
Anthropic▲ 0.528%
Resolves Nov 30$42k in 24h

Best Chinese AI company at the end of November

Xiaomi▲ 3.845%
Alibaba▲ 1.034%
Resolves Nov 30$6k in 24h

Best video model at the end of November

Google▲ 4.449%
MiniMax▲ 9.049%
Resolves Nov 30$5k in 24h

Big questions

5Chance the answer is yes
42%▲ 1.0

Anthropic valued at $2.25T by Dec 31

$15k in 24h
6%▼ 4.5

OpenAI announces AGI before 2027

$14k in 24h
4%▼ 5.7

Tesla releases Optimus by Dec 31

$9k in 24h
80%▲ 1.6

Anthropic IPO in November 2026

$5k in 24h
45%

OpenAI IPO by Jun 30, 2027

$2k in 24h

How to read the odds

Every outcome on Polymarket costs between 0 and 1 dollar, and a price of 54 cents means the market puts the chance at 54%. The coloured arrow shows how many points the chance moved in 24 hours. Markets where almost nobody trades are hidden: one trade can move their price.

Line: the chance the model is out by that date. Dot: the day the chance reaches 50%.

Odds come from Polymarket: they are the prices people buy and sell outcomes at. This is not a bet and not financial advice. Markets with little volume are not shown.