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Fed decision odds, IPO dates and live economy numbers

Numbers now

Fed rate3.75-4.00%effective 3.88%as of Nov 3
US inflation3.7%over 12 monthsdata for September
US unemployment4.2%▲ 0.1 pp in a monthdata for September
US 10-year bonds4.95%2-year: 4.61%▲ 0.04 ppas of Nov 3
Gold$4,064per ounce
Euro in dollars1.1267ECB rate▲ 0.8%as of Nov 4

Fed decision

Decision on Dec 9

Now 3.75-4.00%

The market expects a 0.25% hike: 78%.

  1. +0.25%78%▲ 3.0
  2. No change22%▼ 1.0
24h volume: $1.4MResolves Dec 9

The next one, Jan 27, 2027

No change▲ 9.079%
+0.25%▼ 7.020%
$32k in 24h

Fed rate at the end of 2026

4.25%▲ 4.076%
4.0%▼ 2.221%
$4k in 24h

Other central banks

8
ECB
December
+0.25%88%
Bank of England
November
+0.25%99%
Bank of Japan
December
+0.25%91%
Bank of Canada
December
No change63%
Swiss National Bank
December
No change86%
Reserve Bank of NZ
December
+0.25%71%
Brazil central bank
December
No change73%
Bank of Mexico
November
No change78%

IPOs

6

Who goes public before 2027

Anthropic▼ 3.589%
Celonis09%
Perplexity▼ 4.46%
Freddie Mac▼ 226%
Discord▼ 1.16%
Ledger04%
$10k in 24h

The largest IPO of 2026

SpaceX▲ 5.068%
Anthropic30%
xAI26%
OpenAI<1%
$73k in 24h

Anthropic

IPO
By Nov 30: 82%
Expected date≈Nov 19
50%
By Nov 20: 58%▼ 7.0in 24h

DeepSeek

IPO
Expected date≈Jul 29, 2027
50%
By Dec 31, 2027: 67%0in 24h

Kraken

IPO
Expected date≈Oct 12, 2027
50%
By Dec 31, 2027: 64%▼ 15in 24h

OpenAI

IPO
Chance by Jun 30, 202745%
50%
By Jun 30, 2027: 45%▼ 0.5in 24h

Economy and markets

8Chance it happens
6%

A US recession by the end of 2026

$3k in 24h
14%▼ 6.5

US inflation goes above 4.5% in 2026

$7k in 24h
90%▼ 0.5

US inflation for October comes in at 3.7%

$9k in 24h
44%

US unemployment for October comes in at 4.2%

$537 in 24h
57%▲ 22

Apple is the world's most valuable company at the end of 2026

$82k in 24h
85%▲ 1.0

S&P 500 beats bitcoin, gold and the S&P 500 in 2026

$3k in 24h
8%▼ 1.0

The AI bubble bursts by Dec 31

$1k in 24h
10%▼ 3.5

Oil sets an all-time high by Dec 31

$93k in 24h

Why Polymarket

On Polymarket people put their own money on what will happen: will the model ship by a given date, will the project launch a token. Guess right and you take the money of those who guessed wrong. So nobody argues just to argue there: people back their words with cash, and the price quickly soaks up what thousands of them know, including the ones closest to the rumours and leaks.

The numbers at the top are the official ones, as the Fed, the US Treasury, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the ECB publish them. Everything below is what Polymarket traders expect next: a rate decision, an IPO date, the next inflation print. Stock indexes are not here: no free source allows showing them.

The odds refresh on their own every 5 minutes, last at .

Numbers: New York Fed, US Treasury, BLS, ECB, gold-api.com. Odds: Polymarket.

Not financial advice and not a nudge to bet. Markets where hardly anyone trades are hidden: a single trade can move their price.