Grok 4.8+
xAILive
Expected date≈Nov 12
By Nov 3093%
24h volume$173
The market expects Grok 4.8+ around Nov 12. The chance by Nov 30 is 93%.
Chance of release by date
Every date
| Date | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | 24% | |
| Nov 3 | 24% | |
| Nov 4 | 25% | |
| Nov 5 | 26% | |
| Nov 6 | 41% | |
| Nov 7 | 42% | |
| Nov 8 | 46% | |
| Nov 9 | 46% | |
| Nov 10 | 47% | |
| Nov 11 | 47% | |
| Nov 12 | 48% | |
| Nov 13 | 52% | |
| Nov 14 | 77% | |
| Nov 15 | 77% | |
| Nov 16 | 93% | |
| Nov 17 | 93% | |
| Nov 18 | 93% | |
| Nov 19 | 93% | |
| Nov 20 | 93% | |
| Nov 21 | 93% | |
| Nov 22 | 93% | |
| Nov 23 | 93% | |
| Nov 24 | 93% | |
| Nov 25 | 93% | |
| Nov 26 | 93% | |
| Nov 27 | 93% | |
| Nov 28 | 93% | |
| Nov 29 | 93% | |
| Nov 30 | 93% |
How the expected date moved
Before Nov 2 the line is rebuilt from Polymarket's price history.
Other models
The odds refresh on their own every 5 minutes, last at .
Not financial advice and not a nudge to bet. Markets where hardly anyone trades are hidden: a single trade can move their price.