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MAI thinking

Microsoftnext modelLive
Open on Polymarket ↗
Chance by Dec 3168%
24h volume$0

The market leans towards MAI thinking coming out by Dec 31: 68%.

Chance of release by date

Every date

DateChance24h
Dec 3168%▼ 1.5

How the chance by Dec 31 moved

Before Nov 2 the line is rebuilt from Polymarket's price history.

Other models

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By Nov 30: 95%
Expected date≈Nov 10
50%
By Nov 11: 67%▲ 6.5in 24h

GPT Astra 6.1+

OpenAI
By Nov 30: 91%
Expected date≈Nov 6
50%
By Nov 15: 77%▲ 8.5in 24h

Fable 5.2+

Anthropic
By Nov 30: 94%
Expected date≈Nov 10
50%
By Nov 12: 63%▲ 7.0in 24h

The odds refresh on their own every 5 minutes, last at .

Not financial advice and not a nudge to bet. Markets where hardly anyone trades are hidden: a single trade can move their price.